Banking

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Banking makes a major contribution to mature economies but banking crises can do them great damage. Bank regulation is a compromise between the avoidance of banking crises and the preservation of banking efficiency. Following the crash of 2008, proposals for regulatory reform are under consideration, and there are prospects of major changes to the structure of the world's banking industry.

(For definitions of the terms shown in italics in this article, see the glossary on the Related Articles subpage).

Banking essentials

Banks are financial intermediaries between lenders and borrowers.

"Commercial banks" accept payments from depositors and lend money to personal and commercial borrowers. In addition to the money they get from depositors, they can get short-term loans from their central bank's "discount window", or from the money market. They make profits by charging higher interest rates to their borrowers than they pay to their lenders - a difference that is known as their "spread".

The banks that lend money to borrowers but do not accept deposits from the public, include "wholesale banks" that deal with other banks or financial companies; "investment banks", (also known as "merchant banks") that raise money for companies by finding buyers for their equity and bonds; and "universal banks" that combine all of those activities. Other institutions that lend money to personal or commercial borrowers are referred to collectively as the "shadow banking system".

The practice of retaining only a fraction of the money deposited with it as a "reserve" and lending out the rest is known as "fractional reserve banking", and it enables the bank to participate in the process of money creation.

Banking theory

Bank runs (the Diamond-Dybvig model)

Banks usually make loans that they cannot withdraw at short notice, and pay for them with deposits that can be withdawn without notice. This is referred to as a situation in which a bank's liabilities are more liquid than its assets. A bank is said to suffer a liquidity crisis if too many depositors attempt to withdraw their money at one time - a situation referred to as a bank run. The Diamond-Dybvig model explains why banks choose to issue deposits that are more liquid than their assets and why banks are subject to runs. It is a highly stylised three-period, one-bank construction that makes use of the game theory concept of a Nash equilibrium to derive its conclusions. [1]. The model has been widely used as theoretical framework for analysing the economics of banking and banking policy

Bank lending (incomplete contract theory)

When it is not feasible to provide in a contract for all of the circumstances that may govern its fulfilment, the contract is said to be incomplete. There is often a tacit understanding that the terms of an incomplete contract may be renegotiated if there any unexpected developments. The concept of an incomplete contract is applicable to a bank loan because it is always possible that circumstances will arise under which the recipient may be unable to comply with its terms. Under those circumstances, renegotiation may be better than bankrutcy, both for the bank and for the borrower. It can be argued that it is the incomplete contract concept that has thus distinguished bank loans from other forms of borrowing. There is no established mechanism, for example, for the renegotiation of the terms of a bond.

Incomplete contract theory is about the economic advantages that can arise from the flexibility provided for in an incomplete contract. The theory has also been used to explain the historical development of banking practice and to make suggestions concerning its future development [2].

The agency problem

A problem can arise when an agent, who is employed to look after the interests of a principal, uses for his own benefit the authority given to him for that purpose. The agency problem is the problem of deciding how much it is worth spending on precautions or incentives to discourage such behaviour. Principal-agent relations are a necessary feature of financial intermediaries and conflicts of interest are inevitable. Market forces may be expected to deter agent misbehaviour when the principals are as well-informed as their agents, but communication difficulties give at least temporary protection to misbehaving agents in the complex context of modern banking. A wide range of potential agency problems has been identified [3], and there have been extensive studies of the influence of pay incentives such as performance-related bonuses. However, the perception that performance-related bonuses could encourage investment managers to take unwarranted risks was not voiced until 2008.

Portfolio theory

Applications of financial portfolio theory [4], to the concept of value-at-risk have had an important influence on banks' investment policies. That concept had its origins in the 1922 membership requirements of the New York Stock Exchange and has since been developed over the years by the incorporation of successive developments in financial economics[5]. Its common feature is the assumption that investment risks are stochastic rather than deterministic - that is to say, the assumption that they arise from the existence or random fluctuations, and not as a consequence of human behaviour.

The supply of money and credit

The creation of money

With the development in the 20th century of "fiat money" - whose value derives solely from the authority of government - the banking system has come to play an essential part in its supply. It can be shown that a bank that lends out all but a fraction of its deposits can actually create money, so that, for example, a bank with a ten per cent reserve ratio can convert a £1000 deposit into an increase in the availability of money of up to £10,000[6]. The extent to which banks do so in practice depends upon the exent to which money that is borrowed from a bank is returned to the banking system as a deposit. It depends also upon the banks' reserve ratio. In times of strong economic growth, the banks tend to increase their lending with the result that there is an increase in the money supply [7], facilitating yet more investment and consumption. Conversely, there is a tendency to reduce their lending (or "deleverage") in times of recession, causing a reduction in the availability of money (popularly termed a "credit crunch") that tends to worsen the recession.

Monetary policy

The task of managing its currency is usually delegated by a country's government to its central bank and with it, the responsibility for maintaining monetary stability. There were attempts in the 1980s to limit inflation by controlling the quantity of money in circulation[8][9]. One way of doing so is by varying the interest rate that it charges the banks. A rate reduction encourages banks to borrow money so that they can increase lending and so create more money. Another way of increasing the money supply is by an open market operation [10] in which the central bank buys securities from the private sector, paying for them by a nominal increase in its balance sheet liabilities (quantitative easing, sometimes referred to as "printing money")[11]. Alternatively, the money supply can be increased more directly by reducing the minimum reserve ratios that the banks are legally required to maintain. It is also open to a central bank to "sterilise" the monetary system against other influences upon the money supply by increasing or reducing its holdings of government securities. However, the degree of control that can be achieved by any of those methods is limited by the fluctuations that occur in the demand for money. Since the 1990s the general practice has been to use the central bank's influence on interest rates [12] either to limit inflation at times of rapid economic expansion or to stimulate growth in order to avert a recession [13], and qualitative easing has only been used during major recessions (it was used in Japan in the 1990s and in the United States and Europe in 2009).

Banking innovations - a brief history

Medieval banking

A variety of enterprises whose activities can be broadly described as banking were in existence before and during the middle ages. Some, that have been categorised as "deposit banks", accepted deposits and made loans; some, termed "exchange banks" were restricted to providing the means of making transactions between traders using different currencies; and others combined both functions. Deposit banking is believed by historians [14] to have evolved from money changing. Coins were displacing barter as a means of trading but since they were of variable quality, it is thought to have been convenient to use the services of a money-changer. A trader could open an account with a money-changer into which he could deposit and withdraw coinage. Payments to other traders with accounts with the same trader could then be made by having the money-changer debit his account and credit theirs. The money-changer had to keep some coins in reserve for withdrawals and payments to other money-changers but since, with random inflows and outflows, a net outflow amounting to a major proportion of the money deposited was unlikely, the otherwise idle cash was made available for loans. Those loans usually took the form of overdrafts to depositors because they were considered less risky than loans to strangers. The main causes of bank failures were fraud, and defaults on loans made to kings to pay their armies [15].

Renaissance banking

Few European banks achieved a reputation for probity and stability before the 17th century, mainly because of the absence of established property rights or of the effective discouragement of fraud. There were a few local attempts to create stable and reliable banks. For example, the municipal authorities in Barcelona set up a public bank in the late fourteenth century, which accepted deposits but was not authorised to make loans to the public [16], but elsewhere banking fraud and financial failure were commonplace. The best-known among the few exception was the Medici bank, which flourished in Florence in the first half of the fifteenth century, surviving long enough to develop some significant innovations. In particular, it brought about the general commercial use of "bills, of exchange" (which are the banking counterpart of promissary notes or IOUs), which enabled traders to defer payment for a purchase [17]. Its practices are thought to have served as the model for modern European banking.

Banking in the 17th and 18th centuries

In the early years of the 17th century, the municipal authorities of Amsterdam, being aware that commercial activity there was being hampered by the uncertainties created by the circulaton of coins of various currencies and differing quality, decided to take action. As a corrective they founded the "Wisselbank" in 1609, [18], and required it to maintain a high level of stability by maintaining its reserves of coins and precious metals at a level close to 100 per centof its deposits. It operated mainly as a service to merchants who were trading in different currencies and it did not make loans to the public. Its main contribution to banking innovation was a system of transfers by cheques and direct debits that was similar to the system in use in the 21st century. The Wisselbank had some of the characterestics of a modern central bank [19] and it inaugurated a five-hundred-year period of participation in, and regulation of banks by public authorities. However, the claim to have been the world's first central bank is made by the Swedish Riksbank [20] which was inaugurated 1668 as the successor to John Palmstruch's "Stockholm Banco". It was nominally a private bank, but the King of Sweden appointed its management, and regulated its operations. Unlike the Wisselbank, it issued loans and maintained reserves at only a fraction of its deposits. Its main contribution to banking innovation was the issue the first modern banknotes, which were interest-free bills of exchange, denominated in specific amounts and - in principal - corresponding in total value to money deposited in the bank. It was later to be formally recognised as a public bank with a statutory monopoly of the issue of banknotes [21]. The Bank of England was created as a private bank in 1694 [22] , mainly in order to raise money for the government of the day (by converting some of its debt to shares in the bank and in 1709 it was granted a partial monopoly in the issue of banknotes. [23]. [24]. The bank maintained sufficient reserves of gold to redeem its notes on demand (except during the Napoleonic War, when that facility had to be suspended). An attempt was made to set up a French central bank in 1710, but after a successful start, it collapsed in 1720, causing a major economic crisis. [25]. United States banking commenced in the 1780s with the chartering of the Bank of North America, and the creation of the First Bank of the United States with a limited role as a central bank. [26].

Banking in the 19th century

In the United States, there followed a protracted series of politically controversial and mainly unsuccessful attempts to regulate its rapidly expanding banking sector [27]. At the state level, banks had to be registered with state legislatures, who set reserve requirements that were, at best, loosely enforced. Few of them survived for more than five years. At the national level, the First Bank of the United States was closed, to be succeeded by the Second Bank of the United States until it too was closed in 1836 without achieving a significant improvement in banking stability. In 1864, the United States Congress passed the National Banking Act with the intention of creating a network of federally-chartered "national banks" with improved regulatory standards, but without setting up another central bank [28].

In England, the need for intervention became evident in 1866 when the collapse of the Gurney-Overend bank caused a panic in which large numbers of people tried to withdraw deposits from their banks; leading to the collapse of over 200 companies [29]. On that occasion the Bank of England had refused to help, but the influential commentator Walter Bagehot urged that in a future panic it should "advance freely and vigorously to the public out of its reserves"[30] in order to avoid another "run on the banks", a recommendation that is credited with the esablishment of the concept of the central bank as lender of last resort [31]. The 1890 failure of the Barings bank (then the world's largest investment bank) [32] further established the role of the Bank as a guardian of the English banking sector when it organised a rescue by guaranteeing loans to it by other banks, thereby establishing the concept of "too big to fail". The Bank Charter Act of 1844 had already established it as the only institution in England with note-issuing powers [33], and the Bank of England was gradually assuming in full, the role of a modern central bank.

Regulation, deregulation and securitisation in the 20th century

In the United States there had been similar initial inaction in face of the panic of 1893 but following the further panic of 1907 the Congress created the Federal Reserve System and granted it powers to assist banks that faced demands that they would otherwise be unable to meet [34]. The subsequent practice of central banks in the United States and elsewhere has been to assume the role of lender of last resort and provide short-term loans to solvent banks to tide them over temporary liquidity difficulties [35], and also to provide or arrange longer-term loans to avert failures that would be large enough to threaten the stability of the banking system. The next important innovation was prompted by the sequence of bank runs and failures that occurred in the period from 1929 t0 1933. The Banking Act of 1933, established the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, with authority to regulate and supervise state banks outside the Federal Reserve System and provide them with deposit insurance. The Act also prohibited combinations of commercial and investment banking. [36] and other restrictions were also imposed upon banking activity (see the Addendum subpage). Restrictions upon banking activities - intended to reduce the danger of a recurrence of the financial instability experienced in the early 1930s - were imposed by most other industrialised countries. Until the 1980s, investment banks were not normally permitted to undertake non-financial activities, nor other financial activities such as branch banking, insurance or mortgage lending.

In the 1980s, however, there was extensive deregulation of the banks with the intention of increasing competition and improving efficiency [37]. [38], which made possible a series of innovations, the most significant of which was the practice of securitisation, meaning the conversion of their loans into graded packages of bonds; and the development of the strategy known as "originate and distribute", under which such bonds were sold to pension funds, insurance companies and other banks.

The benefits of banking

There is a presumption that - by providing an improved conduit between savers and investors - banking makes a significant contribution to the functioning of an economy. The improvement that it provides is generally attributed to the banks' screening of applicants for investment funds, to their mobilisation of savings, to their monitoring of investment projects, and to their allocation of risks in response to the needs of different categories of investors. Despite measurement difficulties, the consensus view among economist is that belief in the economic benefits of banking is well supported by empirical evidence - even to the extent of suggesting that a well-functioning banking sector may be a necessary precondition for economic growth. Studies of the Dutch Republic, England, the U.S., France, Germany and Japan suggest that the establishment of a financial system has always preceded the onset of economic growth, and a correlation between financial developments and economic growth over the period 1850-1997 has been established by a cross-section study of 17 countries. It has also been shown that countries with more sophisticated financial systems tend to engage in more trade, and appear to be better integrated with other economies. [39]. Other empirical investigations have shown that the ratio of banking liabilities to GDP is strongly correlated with economic growth [40].

The riskiness of banking

Inherent risks

Like any other enterprise, a bank can increase its profitability - but also its risk of insolvency - by increasing its leverage (as explained on the tutorials subpage) . A bank creates leverage when it lends more money than it holds as reserves (the money provided by its shareholders plus retained profits). With leverage ratios commonly as high as 20, losses of over 5 per cent can be sufficient to create insolvency. For a bank, the principal risks of loss are credit risk, which is the risk that the value of a bank's loans will fall as a result of defaults on the part of borrowers, and interest rate risk, which is the risk that the value of a fixed-rate loan will fall as a result of a rise in interest rates.

In common with other enterprises that make profits by financing long-term investments by short-term borrowing, banks are also vulnerable to liquidity risks. Deposits in banks that can be withdrawn on demand are, in principle, the same as short-term borrowings, although in normal circumstances it is unlikely that any substantial proportion of them would be withdrawn simultaneously. Should that happen, however, the bank may find itself unable to raise the money needed to pay its depositors. A run on a bank can happen if depositors lose confidence in its ability to repay all deposits in full, and try to withdraw their funds immediately. Liquidity crises and bank runs are not the same as insolvency, but they can drive a bank into insolvency as a result of losses on the resulting forced-sales of its assets [41]. A loss of confidence in one bank can spread to other banks by a process termed contagion. It may affect only those banks that are considered to face similar problems, but it may becomme a panic and affect banks that would otherwise be considered trouble- free - and, under extreme circumstances, it can lead infect non-banking organisations and lead to a systemic failure of a country's financial system, or even of the world's entire financial system. [42]

The effects of recent innovations

The banking innovations that were introduced in the 1980s allowed risks to be shared more widely, enabling investments to be undertaken that woould not otherwise have been possible, and thus contributing to economic growth. It was not recognised at the time that they also increased the risk of systemic failure, but there were some expressions of concern in the early years of the 21st century. One cause for concern was a growing tendency to finance lending by short-term borrowing on the money market. In normal times, money market loans were automatically renewed (rolled over) as soon as they matured, but any hint of trouble could prompt the withawal of that facility. Another was the realisation that the process of securitisation had transferred decision-making from managers on fixed salaries to investment managers who were being awarded profit-related bonuses that had the effect of rewarding risk-taking, and a suspicion that the market was being further distorted by herding behaviour by managers who feared being outperformed by their rivals [43]. It also seemed possible that investors and regulators might not be getting an accurate picture of where risks were falling because of the opacity of a system in which "off-balance-sheet" investments enabled banks to conceal their true risk-exposures.

Risk management

During the 1990’s, Value-at-Risk computer programs based upon portfolio theory were widely adopted for measuring market risk in banking portfolios - despite objections by Barry du Toit [44] and Avinash Persaud [45] that they used data that had been contaminated by previous rescues, and that their use generated herding behaviour that itself contributed to instability. Some were sufficiently sophisticated to embody a recognition that probability distributions other than the familiar bell-shaped normal distribution. Many had been "stress-tested" - meaning that they had been successfully applied to past situations. However, all had used data from the period of historically low economic volatility that started in the early 1980s and is known to economists as the "great moderation". [46] That mistake has been held to have been largely responsible for the crash of 2008 and the following recession of 2009.[47]. [48].

Banking crises

Systemic crises

From an economic standpoint, individual bank failures need not be a cause for concern because they may be no more than a reflection of the fact that risk-taking is an unavoidable feature of banking; and because the market positions vacated by those banks that do fail because of bad management may be taken up by better-managed rivals. But the simultaneous failure of a group of banks is a different matter because it may constitute a "systemic" threat, arising from the damage caused to other financial and non-financial enterprises. Failures that result in a major reduction of a country's banking capital almost inevitably result in a systemic crisis as the remainder of the system falls victim to "positive feedback" because the economic damage done by initial failures results in the failure of banks that would otherwise have prospered. Positive feedback from an economic recession may similarly lead to systemic banking failures that further exacerbate the originating recession [49].

The Asian banking crisis

Banking crises in 14 countries in East- and South-East Asia in the period 1980 to 2002 resulted in output losses estimated to average 22 per cent [50]. Japan was the hardest hit. Credit risks stemming mainly from non-performing real-estate loans led to the closure by its deposit insurance authorities of 180 deposit-taking institutions and an output loss estimated as 48 per cent of GDP. Popular opposition made the government reluctant to make direct use of taxpayers money for general assistance to the banking system, and the banking crisis dragged on for over eight years [51].

The Scandinavian banking crises

The banking crises in Norway, Sweden and Finland in the 1990s have been attributed mainly to credit risks resulting from an increase in non-performing loans as economic conditions deteriorated following sharp tightenings of monetary policy [52]. They resulted in substantial output losses and increases in unemploymentand. but they were eventually resolved by government measures that in many cases included guarantees to bank depositors and creditors as well as injections of capital. The Swedish government's responses, in particular, have been regarded as a model that other governments should emulate [53].

The crash of 2008

During the eighteen-month period between the middle of 2007 and the end of 2008 the "crash of 2008" resulted in the failure or enforced rescue of fifteen major banks, three of the world's largest mortgage-lenders and one of the world's largest insurance companies [54], a disaster that has been attributed to risk-management errors on the part of the banks and the principal credit-rating agencies [55] and to inaction on the part of the regulatory authorities. The investments whose riskiness had been wrongly assessed were derivatives based upon mortgages in the United States housing market [56]. In 2007, an international banking panic was triggered by the revelation of serious problems at a major United States bank stemming from its holdings of such derivatives, and in 2008 an international "credit crunch" was generally attributed to a loss of mutual confidence among banks that was prompted by the unexpected failure of the United States authorities to save the Lehman Brothers bank from bankruptcy. According to the Bank of England "The global banking system experienced its most severe instability since the outbreak of World War I" [57].

(The article on bank failures and rescues lists the major bank failures and banking crises from the end of the first world war and the crash of 2008)

Banking regulation

Central bank supervision

Governments have long been aware of the danger that a loss of confidence following the failure of one bank could lead to the failure of others, and eventually to "systemic failure" of the entire financial system. To limit that danger, they have traditionally required banks to limit the extent to which their loans exceed the funds provided by their shareholders by the imposition of minimum "reserve ratios" and have placed various other restrictions upon their activities. In the 1980s, however, it was widely considered that those regulations were imposing excessive economic penalties, and there was a general move toward "deregulation" [58]. Restrictions that had prevented investment banks from broadening their activities to include branch banking, insurance or mortgage lending were dropped, and reserve requirements were relaxed.

The Glass-Steagall Act -- which was repealed by the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act in 1999 [59] -- was designed as a method by which to protect depositors from risks associated with securities transactions. It did this by prohibiting commercial banks from participating in investment banking activities and from collaborating with full-service brokerage firms

International recommendations

In 1974 the governors of the central banks of the Group of Ten leading industrial countries had set up The Basel Committee for Banking Supervision [60] to coordinate precautionary banking regulations [61], and in 1988, concern about the increased danger of systemic failure led that committee to publish a set of regulatory recommendations that related a bank's required reserve ratio to the riskiness of its loans [62]. In 1999 further concern about the danger of instability led to the creation of the Financial Stability Forum [63] to promote information exchange and international co-operation in financial supervision and surveillance. In 2004, the Basel Committee published revised recommendations known as Basel II [64] intended to require banks to take more detailed account of the riskiness of their loans. Responsibility for assessing risk was placed upon the banks and the credit agencies.

(For recommendations for the reform of banking regulation following the crash of 2008 see the article on macroprudential financial policy)

Proposals for reform

G20 summit proposals

At the meeting of the leaders of the G20 countries on 15th November 2008 it was agreed that action should be taken to:-

  • strengthen financial market transparency and accountability,
  • strengthen regulatory regimes, prudential oversight, and risk management,
  • protect the integrity of the world's financial markets by bolstering investor and consumer protection, avoiding conflicts of interest, preventing illegal market manipulation, fraudulent activities and abuse, and protecting against illicit finance risks arising from non-cooperative jurisdictions; and promote information sharing, including with respect to jurisdictions that have yet to commit to international standards with respect to bank secrecy and transparency,
  • coordinate the regulation of financial markets and strengthen cooperation on crisis prevention, management, and resolution,

and that

  • regulators were to develop guidance to strengthen banks' risk management practices,
  • regulators were to ensure that financial firms improve their management of liquidity risk,
  • the Basel Committee was to help the development of new stress testing models,
  • financial institutions were to create incentives to promote stability, and avoid rewarding risk taking, and,
  • banks were to exercise effective risk management and due diligence over structured products and securitization.

(The actions that were agreed are listed in more detail at the addendum [[7]] to the article on the G20 summit.)

Banking prospects

Investment banking

Of the five Wall Street investment banks of 2007, only two remained at the end of 2008 and the survival of the investment bank format seemed open to doubt.

References

  1. Douglas Diamond Banks and Liquidity Creation: A Simple Exposition of the Diamond-Dybvig Model Economic Quarterly - Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, Spring 2007
  2. Raghuram Rajan The Past and Future of Commercial Banking Viewed through an Incomplete Contract Lens, Conference on Comparative Financial Systems, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland,November, 1997 [1]
  3. Ingo Walter: Conflicts of Interest and Market Discipline Among Financial Services Firms (Paper presented at a Federal Reserve of Chicago - Bank for International Settlements conference on “Market Discipline: Evidence Across Countries and Industries,” October 30 - November 1, 2003.)
  4. For a summary of portfolio theory see paragraphs of the article on financial economics
  5. Glyn Holton: History of Value at Risk 1922-1998, Contingency Analysis Working Paper, July 2002
  6. See the explanation of credit creation on the Tutorialsubpage
  7. For a further explanation of the concept of the money supply see the article on the money supply
  8. For the rationale of the monetary control of inflation, see the article on monetarism and paragraphs 1.4 and 3.2 of the article on macroeconomics
  9. Anna J. Schwartz: Money Supply The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
  10. The Framework for the Bank of England's Open Market Operations, Bank of England January 2008
  11. Charles Bean: Quantitative Easing: An Interim Report, Speech to the London Society of Chartered Accountants London, 13 October 2009
  12. Bank of England Note: How monetary policy works
  13. See paragraph 3.3 of the article on macroeconomics
  14. Roberto Naranjo: Medieval Banking- Twelfth and Thirteenth Centuries, eHistory Archive, Ohio State University
  15. Banking in the Middle Ages, University of Calgary History Tutor
  16. Abott Usher: The Early History of Deposit Banking in Mediterranean Europe, Harvard University Press 1943
  17. "Those Medici", The Economist Dec 23rd 1999
  18. Stephen Quinn and William Roberds: An Economic Explanation of the Early Bank of Amsterdam, Debasement, Bills of Exchange, and the Emergence of the First Central Bank,Working Paper 2006-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta September 2006
  19. Stephen Quinn and William Roberds: The Big Problem of Large Bills: The Bank of Amsterdam and the Origins of Central Banking, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Working Paper 2005-16, August 2005
  20. Riksbank History site
  21. Niall Hamilton: The Ascent of Money, page 49, Alan Lane 2008
  22. The Bank of England Act 1694
  23. "About the Bank: History", Bank of England
  24. Walter Bagehot: Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market,Chapter III,Scribner, Armstrong, 1874 (Questia subscribers)
  25. John Sandrock: John Law's Bank Royale and the Missisipi Bubble, The Currency Collector
  26. A History of Central Banking in the United States, The Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  27. Roger Johnson: Historical Beginnings: The Federal Reserve System, Chapter 1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 1999
  28. Edward Flaherty: A Brief History of Central Banking in the United States, University of Groningen, 2003
  29. James Taylor ‘’Limited Liability on Trial: the Commercial Crisis of 1866 and its Aftermath’’ Economic History Society Conference 2003
  30. Walter Bagehot: Lombard Street: A Description of the Money Market Scribner, Armstrong, 1874
  31. Xavier Freixas, Curzio Giannini, Glenn Hoggarth and Farouk Soussa: Lender of Last Resort: A Review of the Literature, Bank of England, Financial Stability Review: November 1999
  32. A Monetary and Financial Wreck:The Baring Crisis, 1890-91 National Bureau of Economic Research
  33. The Bank Charter Act 1844
  34. Roger Johnson: Historical Beginnings: The Federal Reserve System, Chapter 2, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, 1999
  35. Xavier Freixas: Lender of the Last Resort: a review of the literature Bank of England Publications 1999
  36. History of the FDIC, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
  37. James Barth and Gerard Caprio: Rethinking Bank Regulation: Till Angels Govern, Cambridge University Press 2008.
  38. Claudio Borio and Renato Filoso: The Changing Borders of Banking: Trends and Implications, Working Paper No 43 Bank for International Settlements December 1994
  39. Peter Rousseau and Richard Sylla: "Financial Systems, Economic Growth, and Globalization", NBER Working Paper No. 8323, June 2001
  40. Paul Wachtel: How Much Do We Really Know about Growth and Finance?, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta Economic Review First Quarter 2003
  41. George G. Kaufman: Bank Runs, The Concise Encyclopedia of Economics
  42. Olivier de Bandt and Philipp Hartmann: Systemic Risk: A Survey European Central Bank Working Paper No 35, November 1920
  43. Raghuram Rajan: Has Financial Development Made the World Riskier? , Working Paper No 11728, National Bureau of Economic Research September 2005
  44. Barry du Toit Risk, theory, reflection: Limitations of the stochastic model of uncertainty in financial risk analysis Riskworx June 2004 [2]
  45. Avinash Persaud: Sending the Herd Off the Cliff Edge: The disturbing interaction between herding and market-sensitive risk management practices, Jacques de Larosiere Prize Essay, Institute of International Finance, December 2000 [3]
  46. Steven Davis and James Kahn: Interpreting the Great Moderation", NBER Working Paper No 14048, May 2008
  47. David Beckworth: Did the Great Moderation Contribute to the Financial Crisis?, Macro and Other Musings, November 12 2008
  48. Alan Greenspan: We Will Never Have a Perfect Model of Risk", Financial Times, March 16 2008
  49. Emre Ergungor and James Thomson: Systemic Banking Crises, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland. Policy Discussion Paper No 9 February 2005
  50. Ilan Noy: Banking Crises in East Asia, East-West Center November 2005
  51. Bank Failures in Mature Economies, Page 11, Working Paper No 13, Bank for International Settlements, November 2005
  52. [4] Nicola Mai, London Lessons from the 1990s Scandinavian banking crises JP Morgan Chase Bank 2008]
  53. Emre Ergengor: On the Resolution of Financial Crises:The Swedish Experience (translation) Policy Discussion Paper No 21, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, June 2007
  54. For a list of the affected companies see the timelines subpage of the article on the crash of 2008 [5]
  55. For an account of some possible sources of risk-management errors, see the tutorials subpage of the article on the crash of 2008 [6]
  56. See the article on the subprime mortgage crisis
  57. Overview of the November Inflation Report, Bank of England 2008
  58. Claudio Borio and Renato Filosa: The Changing Borders of Banking, BIS Economic Paper No 43, Bank for International Settlements December 1994
  59. Financial Services Modernization Act (Gramm-Leach-Bliley) Summary of Provisions, 1999
  60. The Basel Committee for Banking Supervision
  61. See paragraph 5 of the article on Financial economics
  62. The Basel Capital Accord (Basel I) Basel Committee for Banking Supervision 1988
  63. The Financial Stability Forum
  64. Revised International Capital Framework, (Basel II) Basel Committee on Banking Supervision 2006