Great Depression/Addendum

The data on this page are taken from Bernanke (2000) , in addition to the sources indicated. The unemployment rates quoted depend upon then current definitions that varied among countries, and which differ from those now in use.

Developments in individual countries

Europe

Britain

(with supplementary material from Eichengreen (2002) )

The United Kingdom economy had been severely damaged by World War 1 by serious human losses, to which were added the losses of many of its overseas markets and many of its overseas assets. Recovery was hampered by a severe post-war depression and - after rejoining the gold standard in 1925 at its pe-war parity with the dollar - by an overvalued currency and a struggle to resist massive gold outflows to the United States. (It was in an attempt to stem those outflows that the Bank of England persuaded the Federal Reserve Bank to engineer a monetary expansion in 1927.) The economy suffered a sharp "slump" (the term used in Britain to denote its share of the great depression) between 1929 and 1931, and the government was then forced by further ouflows, to leave the gold standard - after which the economy showed a steady export-led recovery. There was considerable labour unrest but no banking crisis.

In numerical terms, the relevant policy actions and economic trends were as follows.

The Bank of England raised its discount rate in steps from 4.5% in 1928 to a peak of 6% in 1929, reduced it in steps to 2.5% in early 1931, raised it again to 6% in late 1931 and then reduced it to 2% in 1932. There was a budgetary swing from a surplus of 0.4 per cent of GNP in 1929/30 to a deficit of 1.3 per cent of GDP in 1932/3. The "General Tariff" of 1932 imposed a 10% tax on all imports except raw materials - with later relaxations for imports from the British Commonwealth.

On an index of 1928 = 100, wholesale prices fell to 65 in 1931; and industrial production rose to 117 in 1929, fell to 81 in 1931 and then began to recover. The volume of exports - which had risen by over 50% between 1921 and 1920, fell by over 10% in the early 1930s and recovered to near is 1929 level by 1938. The unemployment rate rose from 10% in 1929 to 22% in 1932 and was back to 10% by 1937.

France

(with supplementary material from Eichengreen and Wyplosz (89) and Mauré )

France was the last European country to be affected by the depression. It did not suffer deflation or a downturn in economic activity until 1932, but once its depression got started, it lasted longer than in Britain, and it did not start to recover until 1936 by which time, Britain's recovery was virtually complete. There were major bank failures and runs on several provincial banks in 1930 and 1931, and a riot that brought down the government in 1934 .

France had rejoined the gold standard in 1926, and its central bank had resisted pressures to devalue the Franc until 1936, and it experienced large gold inflows (and according to Bernanke and Mihov kept to the "rules of the game" and did not sterilise gold inflows, and maintained a monetary policy that was generally contracyclical). Discount rates were maintained in the range 2% to 3.5% throughout the period 1928 - 34 and were raised briefly to 5% in 1935. Fiscal policies were generally expansionary, with a succession of budget deficits.

On an index of 1928 = 100, wholesale prices fell to 48 in 1935; and industrial production rose to 112 in 1929, and remained at that level through 1930, but fell to 71 in 1932 and did not began a recovery until 1935. According to Eichengreen , French Industrial Unemployment averaged 10% in the period 1930 to 1938, compared with 15% in the UK and 26% in the US.

Germany

rejoined the gold standard in 1924

On an index of 1928 = 100,consumer prices fell to 77 in 1933; and industrial production rose to 110 in 1929, fell to 59 in 1932

The Great Depression hit Germany hard. The impact of the Wall Street Crash forced American banks to end the new loans that had been funding the repayments under the Dawes Plan and the Young Plan. In 1932, 90% of German reparation payments were cancelled. Widespread unemployment reached 25% in Germany, as every sector was hurt. The Weimar government, under Kurt von Schleicher , by the end of 1932, had already enacted legislation which was in line with keynesian suggestions, but failed to implement it for fears that such a high-spending policy could lead to a return of the hyperinflation that had affected Germany in the years immediately after World War I. This failure to deal with the depression crisis caused both the general public and the German elites to completely lose confidence in the Weimar government and played a significant role in the election of Adolf Hitler and in the ascention of his Nazi Party. Once in power, Hitler's appointed as his economy minister Horace Greely Hjalmar Schacht (1934–37). Schacht applied vigorously the new ideas Keynes had been defending, almost simulteanously with Roosevelt's New Deal. Under the command of Schacht, who run deficit spendings of up to 5% of Nazi Germany's GNP, unemployment was completely ended in Germany by 1937, without any significant increase in inflation. Hitler followed an economic policy of autarky, creating a network of client states and economic allies in central Europe and Latin America. His economic policies kept as much German money as possible in Germany, and otherwise built a system of satellites with differential exchange rates: Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Yugoslavia, Greece and Turkey. Large scale military spending did began in 1933 and played a major role in recovery.

Italy

rejoined the gold standard in 1927 and left it in 1931

The Great Depression hit Italy very hard. As industries came close to failure they were bought out by the banks in a largely illusionary bail-out - the assets used to fund the purchases were largely worthless. This lead to a financial crisis peaking in 1932 and major government intervention. The Industrial Reconstruction Institute (IRI) was formed in January 1933 and took control of the bank-owned companies, suddenly giving Italy the largest state-owned industrial sector in Europe (excluding the USSR). IRI did rather well with its new responsibilities - restructuring, modernising and rationalising as much as it could. It was a significant factor in post-1945 development. But it took the Italian economy until 1935 to recover the manufacturing levels of 1930 - a position that was only 60% better than that of 1913.

Spain

Spain had a relatively isolated economy, with high protective tariffs and was experiencing other economic problems with the need for land reform, overall development, and better education levels. It was not one of the main countries affected by the Depression. However, because the country was destroyed by civil war and suffered from isolation because of Francisco Franco's fascist regime, GDP levels of 1939 were not recovered until 1953.

Sweden

rejoined the gold standard in 1924 and left it and devalued its currency in 1931

On an index of 1928 = 100, wholesale prices fell to 71 in 1931; and and industrial production rose to 129 in 1929, fell to 64 in 1932 and then began to recover

Asia

Australia

rejoined the gold standard in 1925, left it in 1929 and devalued its currency in 1930 Australia, with its extreme dependence on exports, particularly primary products such as wool and wheat, is thought to have been one of the hardest-hit countries in the Western world Unemployment reached a record high of 29% in 1932, one of the highest rates in the world. There were also incidents of civil unrest, particularly in Australia's largest city, Sydney.

Japan

rejoined the gold standard in 1930 and left it and devalued its currency in 1931 Japan, with a growing industrial base, was hurt slightly, with GDP falling 8% 1929-30. The economy recovered by 1932.

China

China was the only country on the silver standard in an international monetary system dominated by the gold standard. Fluctuations in international silver prices undermined China’s monetary system and destabilized its economy. In response to severe deflation, the state shifted its position toward the market from laissez faire to committed intervention. Establishing a new monetary system, with a different foreign-exchange standard, required deliberate government management; ultimately the process of economic recovery and monetary change politicized the entire Chinese economy.

The Americas

United States

rejoined the gold standard in 1919 and left it and devalued its currency in 1933

On an index of 1928 = 100, wholesale prices fell to 61 in 1933; and industrial production rose to 115 in 1929, fell to 55 in 1932 and did not return to 1928 levels until 1936

The Great Depression had a significant impact on the economy and people of the United States and began to fully affect the country late in 1930 and early in 1931. The official beginning and ending dates for the economic decline according to the National Beureau of Economic Research were from September of 1929 to March of 1933. At the depth of the downturn, the unemployment rate exceeded 20% and the index of industrial production dropped about 50%. Real or inflation/deflation adjusted gross domestic product ("GDP") grew rapidly after 1933 and surpassed the 1929 high by 1936. There was also a decline or recession from June of 1937 through June of 1938, but real GDP remained above the 1929 high. Employment was much slower to recover. The number of non farm jobs did not surpass the 1929 high until 1939 and the number of total jobs did not surpass the 1929 high until 1941. President Herbert Hoover was widely blamed, and he was defeated in 1932 by Franklin D. Roosevelt. Roosevelt launched a New Deal designed to provide emergency relief to upwards of a third of the population, to recover the economy to normal levels, and to reform failed parts of the economic system. Although F.D.R. reduced unemployment by over 5 million in his first term relatively high unemployment lingered until the early 1940s.

Canada

rejoined the gold standard in 1926 and left it and devalued its currency in 1931

On an index of 1928 = 100, wholesale prices fell to 66 in 1933; and industrial production rose to 119 in 1929, fell to 51 in 1933 and did not return to 1928 levels until 1936

Canada was the country hardest hit by the Great Depression. By 1933 its industrial production had fallen to 51 per cent of its 1928 value, and wholesale prices to 66 per cent. Output did not return to its 1928 level until 1936

Latin America

Before the 1929 crisis, links between the world economy and Latin American economies had been established through American and British investment in Latin American exports to the world. As a result, Latin Americans export industries felt the depression quickly. World prices for commodities such as wheat, coffee and copper plunged. Exports from all of Latin America to the US fell in value from $1.2 billion in 1929 to $335 million in 1933, rising to $660 million in 1940.

But on the other hand, the depression led the area governments to develop new local industries and expand consumption and production. Following the example of the New Deal, governments in the area approved regulations and created or improved welfare institutions that helped millions of new industrial workers to achieve a better standard of living.

South Africa

The Great Depression had a pronounced economic and political effect on South Africa, as it did to most nations at the time. As world trade slumped, demand for South African agricultural and mineral exports fell drastically. Many historians think that the social discomfort caused by the depression was a contributing factor in the defeat of Barry Hertzog and his National Party (South Africa)|National Party in the 1933 general election.