2008 United States presidential election

The United States has scheduled its 55th quadrennial presidential election to be held nationwide on November 4, 2008. The leading contender for the nomination on the Democratic side is Senator Hillary Clinton trailed by Senator Barack Obama and former Senator John Edwards, and several also-rans. On the Republican side it's a five-way race. The nominees of each party will officially be chosen by the national conventions in the summer, but in reality will be known sometime in February or March after most states choose their convention delegations. New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg has toyed with the idea of becoming a third party candidate; as a billionaire he could finance his own campaign.

This election will choose the 44th President of the United States and the 47th Vice President of the United States. Since President George W. Bush has served two terms already, he is ineligible to serve another term as president. Following the re-election of Bush in 2004, Vice President Dick Cheney denied any interest in running for president, quoting General William Tecumseh Sherman's famous statement "If nominated, I will not run. If elected, I will not serve."

Background

A narrow victory in the 2004 elections handed Republicans control of both houses as well as the presidency, and it appeared the Republican candidate in 2008 would stand a substantial chance of leading the third consecutive Republican administration in the 21st century, resulting in one of the most competitive Republican primaries in history, with prominent Republicans such as Arizona Senator John McCain and New York City's former mayor Rudy Giuliani seeking the nomination.

After a close and highly-disputed loss of the Gore/Lieberman ticket in 2000, and a loss of the popular vote by three million in 2004, the Democrats were initially at a disadvantage for the 2008 election until popularity numbers began to sink for Bush and the Republican Party starting in late 2005, with growing doubts about the Iraqi War, health insurance and ethics investigations, which resulted in the Democrats taking back control of both houses in the 2006 elections.

Polls

Polls in early 2008 show a competitive general election, between top Democratic candidates (in poll standings) Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama vs. leading Republicans John McCain, Rudy Giuliani or Mike Huckabee. In the Democratic race, throughout 2007 Clinton had a wide lead over Obama and Edwards, but the three are now running neck and neck in Iowa for the Jan 3, 2008 caucuses, and Clinton and Obama are close in polls regarding the Jan. 8 New Hampshire primary. Nationwide, however, Clinton leads Obama by 44-25.

The Republican primary shows a contest in turmoil, which may indicate the splintering of the Reagan coalition of social conservatives, the religious right, national-defense hawks, and advocates of low taxes. McCain started with a large lead but collapsed in the spring, because of grass roots opposition to his liberal stance on immigration, and bad financial strategy that left the campaign broke. But McCain soldiered on, making a comeback in early January. Rudy Giuliani, the former Mayor of New York, used his heroic image from the 9-11 Attack, and promise of a strong counter-terrorism policy, to vault to the lead, despite moderate social policies that the large conservative wing disliked. In early December, however, his negatives were catching up and he fell from the 30% to the 20% level nationally. Hollywood actor and former senator Fred Thompson entered the race late, but appealed to many conservatives looking for another Ronald Reagan. His ineffective campaign style led to a steady erosion of support. Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, by reversing previous moderate positions, suddenly became a hard-line conservative spokesman. His Mormon religion, however, caused distrust among the religious conservatives who bulk large in the primaries. Romney's strategy was to pour millions of dollars (mostly his personal money) into Iowa and New Hampshire, hoping that victories there on January 3 and 8, 2008, would generate massive favorable publicity. That publicity supposedly would him a strong position in the Super Tuesday primaries on Feb. 5, 2008, when half the delegates will be chosen. Every prediction and game plan was shattered in November, when Mike Huckabee, a little known former governor of Arkansas, shot to the top of the polls. Huckabee, a former Baptist minister, made a strong appeal to the religious conservatives. Years as a TV announcer gave him a polished yet informal campaign persona that no other candidate could match. By Ne Year's Day, the GOP voters were evenly split, as Giuliani, Huckabee, McCain and Romney each claimed support from 16-20% of the Republicans, trained by Thompson and libertarian Ron Paul.

Democrats showed much greater enthusiasm for their candidates, turning out in far larger and more enthusiastic rallies. In past elections the GOP enjoyed a large financial edge. As 2008 opened the Democratic candidates have so far raised $223 million, compared with $152 million for Republican candidates.

Iowa

The Zogby poll taken December 26-29, 2007, showed Clinton at 31%, ahead of Obama (27%) and Edwards (24%). She does well among voters over 50, liberals, and both the lowest and highest income groups. Her supporters are more strongly committed to her (76% say they are ‘very strong’), compared Edwards (67%) and Obama (57%). Obama holds huge leads among voters under 35, especially the youngest voters. He also does best among those who are "very liberal" and those earning lower middle income ($35,000-$50,000). Edwards does best among men, those earning $75,000-$100,000, and 30-49 year olds. But Edwards is the leader among second choice voters with 30% to Obama's 25%,and Clinton's 12%.

The GOP race shows Huckabee at 29% and Romney at 28%, trailed by McCain at 11%. Huckabee leads among 30-64 year olds, among "very conservative" Republicans, those earning $50,000-$100,000, and Born Again Christians. Romney leads among Independents, both the youngest and oldest voters, moderates, and the lowest and highest income groups. John McCain is in third place by virtue of doing well (though not leading) among voters over 55 (especially over 65), and moderates.

Issues

Iraq

For Democrats the central issue is the the depth of opposition to Bush's Iraq War; Republicans generally support Bush on Iraq. As of November 2007, polls on average show that over 60% of Americans believe that the war is not going well, and a central part of the 2008 campaigns have been each candidates' strategy to stabilize Iraq and set the stage for withdrawal for Iraq. Most Democratic candidates have stated that a withdrawal of troops is necessary to reduce the risk of further casualties of U.S. troops in Iraq, and will also help Iraqi forces become self-sufficient. Some Democratic candidates have stated that continuing U.S presence has abetted the rise of Al-Qaeda in Iraq with Senator Joe Biden stating "We must get our soldiers out of this civil war where they become justification for the Bush-fulfilling prophecy of Al-Qaeda in Iraq to flourish..."

On the contrary, almost every candidate for the GOP nomination has supported President Bush's call for an extended presence in Iraq, stating that the troops should be allowed to finish their assignment and that an early withdrawal could precipitate a breakdown of Iraq's parliamentary government, allowing it to fall to influence from Iran or Al-Qaeda. An exception to this has been Congressman Ron Paul of Texas, who was the Libertarian Party's presidential nominee in 1988, who has consistently advocated for a non-interventionist foreign policy and a withdrawal of troops from Iraq.

Immigration

A central issue for Republicans (but not Democrats) is the status of illegal immigrants, with a grass roots nativism hurting Giuliani. Debate goes on in the Republican party as to whether or not illegal immigrants should be granted a path to citizenship, although all candidates have stated their opposition towards businesses hiring them in America. Amongst the Democratic field, all candidates have stated a desire to allow a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants, though each candidates' plans differ. Some have stated their support for a crackdown on businesses hiring undocumented workers.

Mechanics

The campaign will have three stages. In January, come the preliminaries, with attention focused on the Iowa caucus (Jan. 3) and the New Hampshire primary (Jan 8), along with contests in Michigan, South Carolina and Florida. The comes Super Tuesday Feb 5, with 40% of the delegates chosen. After that a string of primaries will be held, which will become increasingly important if the GOP race becomes deadlocked on Feb. 5. With Clinton holding a nearly 2-1 national lead over Obama, experts expect her to clinch the nomination in February, but Obama has gained momentum and leads Clinton and Edwards on the eve of the Iowa caucus. The GOP nominee may be undecided until the national convention in August.

The rules differ in every state. Most states use primaries which are ordinary elections. Some are open only to party members; in other like New Hampshire, registered independents can vote in one or the other party primary. In most states, the delegates have to be won in each congressional district, though there are a few states with winner-take-all statewide. The caucuses are a leftover from 19th century. In Iowa voters to go to a local school, church basement, or private home to spend between 90 minutes and two hours in a "caucus" to register their preference. Supporters of candidates with under 15% at that caucus move to another candidate. The caucus is a mixture of discussion, debating, a little horse-trading, and some consensus-building between neighbors. Anything can happen, but the media will report on the distribution of support at the end of the evening. (The actual national delegates in Iowa will be chosen months later, and are so few they do not much matter.)

Third parties choose their candidates at their own, smaller conventions that receive little coverage.

Candidates for the Democratic nomination

Top tier

• Hillary Clinton - Former First Lady (1993-2001) and Senator from New York since 2001
• John Edwards - Former Senator from South Carolina (1998-2004) and Democratic Vice Presidential nominee in 2004
• Barack Obama - Senator from Illinois since 2004

Second tier

• Joe Biden - Senator from Delaware since 1973, head of Senate Foreign Relations Committee
• Christopher Dodd - Senator from Connecticut since 1981
• Mike Gravel - Former Senator from Alaska (1969-1981)
• Dennis Kucinich - Congressman from Ohio
• Bill Richardson - Governor of New Mexico since 2003, Secretary of Energy from 1997-2001, Ambassador to the United Nations from 1997-1998

Withdrawn candidates

• Tom Vilsack - Governor of Iowa 1999-2007, endorsed Clinton
• Al Gore - Former Vice President of the United States, 1993-2001, never announced his candidacy.

Candidates for the Republican nomination

Active candidates

• Rudy Giuliani - Mayor of New York City 1994-2001
• Mike Huckabee - Governor of Arkansas 1996-2007
• John McCain - Senator from Arizona 1987-present, 2000 candidate for Republican nomination
• Mitt Romney - Governor of Massachusetts, 2002-2007
• Fred Thompson - Senator from Tennessee, 1994-2003, television and film actor

Second tier

• Duncan Hunter - Congressman from California, 1981-present
• Ron Paul - Congressman from Texas 1997-present, Libertarian Party presidential nominee in 1988

Withdrawn candidates

• Sam Brownback - Senator from Kansas, 1996-present, endorsed McCain
• Jim Gilmore - Governor of Virginia, 1998-2002, currently GOP nominee for 2008 Virginia U.S. Senatorial Election
• Tom Tancredo - Congressman from Colorado, 1999-present, endorsed Romney
• Tommy Thompson - Governor of Wisconsin 1987-2001, Secretary of Health and Human Services 2001-2005, endorsed Rudy Giuliani