User:Nick Gardner /Sandbox: Difference between revisions

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Beginning in 1997, the U.S. witnessed house price appreciation that was highly unusual in
In response to the increase in demand there were almost unprecedented increases in house prices in several countries. In the United States  real (inflation-corrected) prices rose by nearly 85 percent between 1997 and 2006<ref>[http://jec.senate.gov/archive/Documents/Reports/10.25.07OctoberSubprimeReport.pdf ''The Subprime Lending Crisis'', US Senate Joint Economic Committee, October 2007]</ref>, in the United Kingdom there was an (uncorrected) rise of 180 per cent <ref>[http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6090972.stm BBC news 2006  Friday, 27 October 2006]]</ref>, in Spain they nearly trebled<ref>[http://www.spainrei.com/MiV-Spain-Property-Prices-95-07-yearly.htm ''Spain Property Prices 1995 - 2007'', Ministerio de Vivienda, 2008]</ref>, and in Ireland they more than quadrupled <ref>[http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/wp1057.pdf  Daniel Kanda: ''Asset Booms and Structural Fiscal Positions: The Case of Ireland'', International Monetary Fund, March 2010]</ref>.
historical terms. Between 1997 and 2006, real home prices increased by nearly 85 percent.1
Sustained price increases near this magnitude have only been observed once during the twentieth
century, in the period immediately after World War II2 (See Figure 1). In fact, during the period 2001 through 2005, the annual rate of house price appreciation accelerated. The
S&P/Case-Shiller® Home Price Index shows annual price appreciation rising from slightly
over eight and one-half percent in 2001 to more than 15 percent in 2005.
 
<ref>[http://jec.senate.gov/archive/Documents/Reports/10.25.07OctoberSubprimeReport.pdf ''The Subprime Lending Crisis'', US Senate Joint Economic Committee, October 2007]</ref>   JEC Oct 2007
 
The price of the average UK house has risen by 187% to £179,000 since February 1996. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6090972.stm
BBC news 2006  Friday, 27 October 2006
 
between  1995 and 2007 I prices more than quadrupled <ref>[http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2010/wp1057.pdf  Daniel Kanda: ''Asset Booms and Structural Fiscal Positions: The Case of Ireland'', International Monetary Fund, March 2010]</ref>


Many economists argue that house prices have risen too far too fast in many markets, forming a bubble that could rapidly collapse and trigger an economic downturn, as overinflated stock prices did at the turn of the century
Many economists argue that house prices have risen too far too fast in many markets, forming a bubble that could rapidly collapse and trigger an economic downturn, as overinflated stock prices did at the turn of the century
currently chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, in testimony to Congress's Joint Economic Committee. But these increases, he said, "largely reflect strong economic fundamentals," such as strong growth in jobs, incomes and the number of new households. <ref>[http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/26/AR2005102602255.html Nell Henderson: ''Bernanke: There's No Housing Bubble to Go Bust'', Washington Post, October 27, 2005 ]</ref>
currently chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, in testimony to Congress's Joint Economic Committee. But these increases, he said, "largely reflect strong economic fundamentals," such as strong growth in jobs, incomes and the number of new households. <ref>[http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/10/26/AR2005102602255.html Nell Henderson: ''Bernanke: There's No Housing Bubble to Go Bust'', Washington Post, October 27, 2005 ]</ref>
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<ref>[http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4679264 ''Yale Professor Predicts Housing 'Bubble' Will Burst'', Robert Shiller  interview with Madeleine Brand  June 23 2005


Spanish house prices nearly trebled between 1997 and 2007
 
<ref>[http://www.spainrei.com/MiV-Spain-Property-Prices-95-07-yearly.htm ''Spain Property Prices 1995 - 2007'', Ministerio de Vivienda, 2008]</ref>
 
 
real interest rate allowed the “US to continue on this low-interest, high-liquidity asset
boom”.9


<ref>[http://www1.worldbank.org/finance/html/database_sfd.html ''Bank Crises Database'' World Bank 2003]</ref>
<ref>[http://www1.worldbank.org/finance/html/database_sfd.html ''Bank Crises Database'' World Bank 2003]</ref>


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Revision as of 05:11, 17 March 2010

In response to the increase in demand there were almost unprecedented increases in house prices in several countries. In the United States real (inflation-corrected) prices rose by nearly 85 percent between 1997 and 2006[1], in the United Kingdom there was an (uncorrected) rise of 180 per cent [2], in Spain they nearly trebled[3], and in Ireland they more than quadrupled [4].


Many economists argue that house prices have risen too far too fast in many markets, forming a bubble that could rapidly collapse and trigger an economic downturn, as overinflated stock prices did at the turn of the century currently chairman of the president's Council of Economic Advisers, in testimony to Congress's Joint Economic Committee. But these increases, he said, "largely reflect strong economic fundamentals," such as strong growth in jobs, incomes and the number of new households. [5]

House prices have risen by nearly 25 percent over the past two years. Although speculative activity has increased in some areas, at a national level these price increases largely reflect strong economic fundamentals, including robust growth in jobs and incomes, low mortgage rates, steady rates of household formation, and factors that limit the expansion of housing supply in some areas. House prices are unlikely to continue rising at current rates. However, as reflected in many private-sector forecasts such as the Blue Chip forecast mentioned earlier, a moderate cooling in the housing market, should one occur, would not be inconsistent with the economy continuing to grow at or near its potential next year.

[6]

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[8]